RealClear Defense Article: Phase Zero of the Coming War
As we stand today, the global landscape is more fractured than at any time since the end of the Cold War. We are teetering on the edge of protracted instability, with the risk of conflict spreading across Europe, the Middle East, and the Indo-Pacific region. The war in Ukraine grinds into its third year, and tensions in the Middle East threaten to escalate into a regional conflict involving Israel and Iran. Meanwhile, China and Russia—two authoritarian powers—are arming at an unprecedented rate, while the U.S. and its European allies lag in defense spending and production. The global balance of power is shifting, and the West must wake up to this new reality before it’s too late.
A Fractured World: The Geopolitical Landscape
Russia’s second invasion of Ukraine has fundamentally altered Europe’s security calculus. Russia seeks to reassert its influence in Eastern Europe, attempting to re-litigate the post-Cold War settlement. Simultaneously, China continues its bid for regional hegemony in the Indo-Pacific, working systematically to unravel the delicate power balance in Asia. Together, Russia and China have formed what some have dubbed an "Axis of Dictatorships," bolstered by Iran and North Korea.
At the core of this new axis is a “no-limits” partnership between Beijing and Moscow. This alliance poses an unprecedented challenge to the U.S. and its allies, both in Europe and Asia. In stark contrast, NATO remains politically supportive of Ukraine, yet Europe is divided on risk-taking. Countries distant from the frontlines are reluctant to rearm and commit the necessary resources to address this new challenge. The West is fragmented, while adversaries grow stronger and more unified.
America’s Strategic Drift
Over the past two decades, the United States has expended vast resources on various wars and campaigns with questionable success. Successive administrations, both Democrat and Republican, embarked on various nation-building and state-building projects that have depleted national resources. Meanwhile, the U.S. military has shrunk to the point where it can only fight in one major theater, and our defense industrial base has consolidated to such a degree that it lacks the capacity to produce weapons and munitions at scale and speed.
Perhaps more concerning is the erosion of public confidence in the U.S. government’s ability to provide for national security. For two decades, while we focused on counterterrorism and the Global War on Terror, we forgot the essential truths of great power politics—there is no substitute for hard power. In a conflict between near-peer adversaries, military capability ultimately rests on a nation’s industrial strength, its manpower reserves, and its human capital. Without these, no nation can hope to deter, let alone defeat, its enemies.
The Illusion of “Strategic Competition”
Washington’s policy circles have been buzzing for years about the concept of “strategic competition” with great powers. Yet, this term has become a convenient euphemism, shrouding the uncomfortable reality: We are not merely in competition; we are already in Phase Zero of a protracted conflict with Russia and China. Both adversaries are shaping the strategic terrain through conventional means, cyber warfare, and influence operations. We are playing catch-up in a game where the stakes are no less than global power dynamics for the next century.
Amid this escalating challenge, the United States finds itself constrained by its defense budget and a diminished industrial base. As it stands, the U.S. military is too small to handle a two-theater war, and our defense spending is roughly half of what we spent during the Cold War. This mismatch between the growing geopolitical threat and our military capability must be addressed, or we risk losing our strategic advantages.
The Chinese military, which now boasts the world’s largest navy, builds the equivalent of the entire British Royal Navy every two years. Russia, for its part, has put its economy on a war footing, reconstituting its military hardware and producing over a thousand tanks per year. Meanwhile, both nations can produce their weapons at a fraction of the cost that U.S. defense contractors charge. This discrepancy was starkly evident during Israel’s recent defense against Iranian-backed attacks, where the U.S. had to use million-dollar missiles to take out low-cost drones—a clear signal that our procurement processes are out of step with modern warfare.
Rebuilding American Resilience
The first step toward regaining strategic advantage is a generational investment in defense. This will require a new administration to articulate a clear vision of victory—not one rooted in values or normative terms, but a strategy focused on geopolitics, economic welfare, and homeland security. American national security must once again become a central focus of our economic policymaking, with a concerted effort to re-shore critical manufacturing and supply chains.
Equally important is the need to rebuild the American public’s confidence in our national defense strategy. The current political discourse often frames increased defense spending as politically unpalatable. However, no one has made a compelling case to the American public about the true nature of the threats we face. Russia remains a chronic danger to transatlantic security, while China poses an existential threat not only to the United States but to its allies in both Europe and Asia. Until our leaders put these issues front and center, no strategic initiative—be it a “pivot to Asia” or otherwise—will succeed in defending America’s vital interests.
A Call to Action
The stakes could not be higher. As the global balance of power shifts, the United States must act decisively to preserve its national security and protect its interests. This is not a time for complacency or for half-measures. We need to rebuild our military, reinvigorate our defense industrial base, and reassert our role as a global leader. The window for action is closing rapidly, and if we fail to rise to the occasion, we may find ourselves on the losing side of a global conflict that will reshape the world for generations to come.
In this perilous moment, we need a defense strategy that is clear-eyed, ambitious, and grounded in geopolitical realities. The future of our nation—and indeed, the entire rules-based international order—depends on it.
Comentarios