Foreign Affairs Article: America Isn’t Ready for the Wars of the Future
Unveiling the Present Reality in Ukraine
On the battlefields of Ukraine, the future of warfare is no longer a distant reality but a harsh and immediate truth. Thousands of drones fill the skies, equipped with artificial intelligence (AI) systems that navigate obstacles, identify targets, and execute attacks with ruthless precision. Ukrainian forces, utilizing this new technology, have achieved a level of efficiency that has stunned traditional military strategists. Tanks, aircraft, and troops can be neutralized by drones costing a fraction of conventional military equipment. The result? A battlefield where surprise is no longer a factor, as both Ukrainian and Russian forces are under constant surveillance and relentless AI-powered attack.
Yet, Ukraine is not an isolated case. Autonomous systems and AI-driven warfare are emerging across global conflict zones. From Myanmar to Sudan, to the devastating urban combat in Gaza, governments and insurgents alike are embracing drones and algorithms to gain a tactical edge. In 2020, a Turkish-made drone in Libya became the first in history to launch a fully autonomous attack—without human input. Similarly, Azerbaijani forces used loitering munitions (explosives designed to hover over targets) to great effect in Nagorno-Karabakh. This is just the beginning.
The message is clear: warfare, as we know it, is changing faster than anyone could have imagined. And in this new era of autonomous weapons and powerful AI, the United States risks falling dangerously behind.
The Next Battlefield: A Sky Full of Drones, A War of Algorithms
The pace of technological innovation in warfare has never been more rapid. Historically, wars have always spurred invention, but today’s shifts are different in speed and magnitude. Future conflicts won’t be determined by who has the most troops, tanks, or fighter jets. Instead, the key to military dominance lies in autonomous systems, drone swarms, and AI-driven decision-making. The world is moving toward a battlefield dominated by algorithms, where AI predicts movements, directs attacks and makes real-time adjustments that human soldiers can’t match.
In Ukraine, drones costing as little as $500 have become the backbone of defense, taking down tanks and aircraft that cost millions. Ukrainian forces have decimated Russian units using low-cost drones and AI models that can identify and strike targets with unprecedented precision. In the past few months alone, drones have been responsible for eliminating more than two-thirds of the Russian tanks destroyed in Ukraine—a feat that underscores just how transformative this technology is.
Drones are cheap, expendable, and lethal. A $10 million tank can be obliterated by a swarm of drones costing only a few thousand dollars. The financial imbalance is staggering, but so is the shift in military power dynamics. Traditional air defense systems, designed to counter jets and missiles, struggle to cope with hundreds of small, fast-moving objects. This forces countries to spend billions defending against attacks that cost a fraction of that amount. It’s a losing economic battle for any nation unprepared for this shift.
Is the U.S. Military Prepared for AI Warfare?
Despite the success of its military-industrial complex, the United States remains woefully unprepared for the future of warfare. American troops are trained and equipped to fight in conventional conflicts, but the rise of drones and AI presents a new, terrifying reality. The U.S. military’s jets, ships, and tanks are not equipped to defend against an onslaught of AI-driven attacks. Even worse, American forces are not adequately trained to operate in environments where their every movement is monitored and can be instantly countered by drones hovering overhead.
While Russia and China rapidly advance their AI capabilities, the U.S. military is moving too slowly. The Pentagon has been too reliant on outdated systems and bureaucratic processes that have stifled innovation. Current initiatives to integrate AI into defense strategies are crawling forward at a pace that leaves the U.S. vulnerable to global technological advancements.
Russia’s use of AI-powered drones in Ukraine is a clear indication of what the future holds. China’s military restructuring in 2023 further highlights the importance of technology-driven forces. China has even developed an AI military commander capable of overseeing large-scale virtual war simulations—a technology that may soon be deployed in real-world conflicts. Meanwhile, the U.S. military’s hierarchical command structures and slow decision-making processes impede adapting to AI warfare.
If the U.S. doesn’t act quickly, it risks being caught flat-footed in the next major conflict, where drones, robots, and AI could define victory or defeat.
The Legacy of Technological Adaptation in Warfare
Warfare has continuously evolved in response to technological advancement. In the 9th century BC, the invention of the saddle and horseshoes revolutionized cavalry, expanding battlefields into new types of terrain. The introduction of gunpowder and firearms fundamentally altered military strategies, leading to the construction of stronger fortifications and the eventual dominance of armored vehicles and artillery. The Industrial Revolution further transformed warfare, giving rise to machine guns, airplanes, and missiles.
The 20th century saw an explosion of military technology, with World War II serving as a prime example. Countries like Germany, which pioneered the use of mechanized forces, airpower, and radios in their blitzkrieg strategy, nearly conquered Europe within 18 months. The Allies took years to catch up and adopt similar technologies and tactics. Innovation power—the ability to adapt and integrate new technologies—was critical to the Allied victory, which included the development of nuclear weapons and advanced aircraft.
Today, the performance of any military is tied to how well it adopts and integrates new technologies. Yet, despite this long history of technological adaptation, the U.S. military appears slow to embrace the AI and robotics revolution. As in World War II, failing to innovate quickly enough could have devastating consequences.
U.S. Adversaries Are Leading the AI Arms Race
Russia’s war in Ukraine is more than just a territorial conflict—it’s a demonstration of how AI and drones are reshaping military strategies. Russian forces have fielded drones with advanced AI capabilities, while China dominates the global drone market, with companies like DJI controlling around 70% of commercial drone production. Authoritarian regimes like China are especially adept at pushing through technological advancements, unburdened by the bureaucratic hurdles that slow down the U.S. military.
China’s military has embraced AI with alarming speed. Its "multidomain precision warfare" strategy relies on cutting-edge technology to integrate intelligence, reconnaissance, and firepower in ways the U.S. struggles to match. In the near future, American troops could face Chinese hypersonic missiles, AI-powered surveillance, and drone swarms—threats that could overwhelm U.S. defenses before they even have a chance to respond.
This is not a hypothetical scenario. China’s AI-driven surveillance systems and electronic warfare capabilities already give it an edge in the Indo-Pacific region. Despite their conventional superiority, U.S. forces are at risk of being outmatched by swarms of cheap drones and hypersonic missiles, especially in urban and open battlefield environments where U.S. technological advantages are minimized.
The Need for a Major Military Overhaul
To avoid being outpaced by adversaries like China and Russia, the U.S. military must undergo a comprehensive overhaul. This starts with reforming its outdated procurement processes, which currently rely on ten-year cycles that can lock the military into obsolete technologies. The Pentagon must embrace shorter, more flexible contracts that allow for rapid innovation and the deployment of cutting-edge systems. Traditional defense contractors, who are incentivized to produce expensive, complex systems, are not equipped to lead this transformation. The next generation of small, cheap drones and AI-driven platforms is more likely to come from startups and agile companies—yet these firms currently receive less than 1% of Defense Department contracts.
Beyond procurement, the U.S. military must fundamentally restructure its command and control systems. The hierarchical, rigid chain of command must give way to more flexible, decentralized units that can quickly adapt to the fast-paced nature of AI-driven warfare. These units should be equipped with autonomous systems, allowing them to make rapid decisions in the field without waiting for top-down approval. Special forces, known for their autonomy and adaptability, could serve as a model for how the broader military should evolve.
AI Ethics and the Future of Warfare
The rise of AI-driven warfare presents tactical challenges and profound ethical concerns. Autonomous weapons can make life-or-death decisions in milliseconds, often without human oversight. As seen in Gaza and Ukraine, drones can lead to high civilian casualties, especially in densely populated urban environments. The potential for abuse is staggering—authoritarian regimes can use AI to suppress dissent, monitor populations, and conduct extrajudicial attacks, as China has done with its Uyghur population.
To ensure AI is used responsibly, the U.S. must lead global efforts to establish ethical standards for AI warfare. This includes ensuring that AI systems can distinguish between civilian and military targets and keeping human operators in the loop for critical decisions. At the same time, Washington must pressure its allies and adversaries alike to adopt similar ethical standards. Failure to do so risks creating a world where autonomous weapons proliferate without oversight, making future conflicts even more brutal and indiscriminate.
The U.S. Must Lead the AI Revolution or Risk Obsolescence
The character of war is changing rapidly, and the U.S. must change with it. Failure to adapt to AI-driven warfare could leave the United States vulnerable to adversaries that have embraced this new reality. The Pentagon must quickly modernize its procurement, training, and command structures. More importantly, the U.S. must take the lead in ensuring that AI is used in a way that upholds democratic values and protects civilian lives.
In summary, the future of warfare is already here. The question is: will the U.S. be ready? What’s your take on the U.S. military’s approach to AI warfare? Can Washington adapt fast enough to stay ahead?
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