Foreign Affairs Article: China Is Ready for War, And Thanks to a Crumbling Defense Industrial Base, America Is Not
As tensions between the United States and China escalate, one fact is becoming increasingly clear: China’s military-industrial complex is growing at an unprecedented rate while the U.S. defense sector struggles to keep pace. Admiral John Aquilino, former Commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, has called China’s expansion "the most extensive and rapid buildup since World War II." The scale and speed of China's military production and its growing technological sophistication are unparalleled. U.S. Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall bluntly warned, "China is preparing for a war, and specifically for a war with the United States." Yet despite these clear warnings, the U.S. defense industrial base remains constrained by inefficiencies and production delays, raising urgent questions about America’s ability to deter or confront an increasingly assertive China.
China’s Strategic Focus on Military Production: Outpacing the U.S. on Every Front
Despite internal economic issues—rising unemployment, real estate debt, and slowing growth—China has doubled down on defense spending. It is now on a wartime production footing, ramping up military hardware to levels unseen in modern times.
Between 2021 and 2024, China's industrial base produced over 400 modern fighter aircraft, 20 warships, and more than doubled its missile and nuclear warhead inventory. China's capacity to produce weapons is now estimated to be five to six times faster than that of the United States.
Moreover, China’s defense sector isn’t simply growing in scale; it’s rapidly advancing in sophistication. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has developed cutting-edge stealth bombers, increased satellite launches by 50%, and deployed next-generation ballistic missile systems. The PLA Navy, in particular, has transformed into the world’s largest fleet in terms of ship numbers, supported by an immense shipbuilding capacity that far exceeds that of the United States.
While China’s shipyards can quickly produce a wide range of naval vessels, the U.S. Navy, however, still holds advantages in missile firepower and advanced submarines. Nonetheless, China’s industrial surge is a strong indicator that the balance of power is shifting, challenging long-standing U.S. military dominance.
The Roots of China’s Industrial Might: From Economic Growth to Military Expansion
This dramatic growth in China’s military capacity stems from a decade of strategic investments in defense manufacturing, propelled by massive state-owned enterprises like Aviation Industry Corporation of China and China State Shipbuilding Corporation. Once absent from the global list of top defense contractors, China now boasts five of the top twelve defense companies in the world.
This rise parallels China's broader economic ascendancy over the last 20 years. These industrial giants churn out a vast array of military hardware, from carrier-based fighter jets to submarines and hypersonic missiles. China’s defense base is no longer just about quantity; it has refined its weapons development and acquisition processes to achieve qualitative superiority in several fields, such as hypersonic glide vehicles and AI-enhanced battlefield technology.
China’s advances in emerging technologies like artificial intelligence, big data analytics, and quantum computing are poised to revolutionize warfare. These technologies are not just enhancing the PLA's ability to produce advanced hardware but also improving its operational capabilities, from automated decision-making to cyber defense and space-based warfare.
Historically, China’s defense industry was inefficient, plagued by corruption and a lack of innovation. However, state-driven reforms, combined with investments in emerging technologies like AI, big data, and cyber warfare, have turned it into a military powerhouse capable of outpacing U.S. production in several key areas.
A U.S. Industrial Base in Decline: Can Washington Keep Up?
While China has embarked on a stunning military buildup, the U.S. defense industrial base has struggled to maintain pace. During World War II, the United States was "freedom's forge" and the "arsenal of democracy," churning out ships, planes, and weapons at breakneck speed. Today, America’s defense production system is plagued by delays, inefficiencies, and a procurement system better suited to peacetime.
For instance, war games simulating a conflict in the Taiwan Strait revealed a concerning reality: the U.S. would likely deplete its stocks of long-range precision-guided munitions, like antiship missiles, within days or weeks of a major engagement. These weapons, crucial for striking Chinese naval forces from outside the range of air defenses, would be pivotal in the event of conflict. However, the U.S. lacks the surge capacity to replenish these munitions quickly, a key factor in any protracted conflict with China.
China, on the other hand, can rely on its vast network of dual-use shipyards and aerospace factories to rapidly switch from commercial to military production. U.S. shipyards, which have struggled with labor shortages and delays, simply cannot compete. In 2024, the first Constellation-class frigate—a crucial component of U.S. naval strategy—was delayed by at least a year due to a lack of skilled labor, a problem echoed in the production of Virginia-class submarines and guided-missile destroyers.
Implications for U.S. Military Readiness: The Need for Urgent Action
The accelerating gap between the Chinese and U.S. defense industrial bases presents profound strategic risks. If a conflict were to erupt in the Indo-Pacific, China's industrial capacity to produce ships, planes, and missiles could overwhelm U.S. forces. China's state-owned shipyards, which dominate global shipbuilding, give it the ability to mass-produce naval vessels, potentially outpacing U.S. replacements in a protracted conflict.
Moreover, China’s investments in space, cyber capabilities, and missile technology could give it an advantage in domains critical to modern warfare. The Yaogan-41 satellite, part of China’s fleet of reconnaissance satellites, can track naval and air assets across the Indo-Pacific, providing Beijing with an advanced situational awareness. These capabilities challenge U.S. dominance in space-based surveillance and underscore the growing strategic risk posed by China's militarization of space.
Rebuilding America’s Arsenal: Learning from the Past, Preparing for the Future
The U.S. must urgently address the deficiencies in its defense industrial base if it hopes to maintain its strategic edge. The first step is recognizing the scale of the threat. In his famous World War II address, President Franklin Roosevelt called on America to become the “arsenal of democracy.” A similar effort is required today to meet the challenge posed by China’s military buildup.
Just as Roosevelt’s War Production Board galvanized U.S. industry during World War II, today’s geopolitical climate demands a similarly bold and coordinated effort. Washington must also revamp its antiquated procurement system. Contracts that take ten years or more to deliver critical capabilities cannot meet the demands of a rapidly shifting geopolitical environment. The U.S. should establish a presidential commission to oversee defense production, streamline contracting processes, and prioritize munitions and shipbuilding.
Furthermore, the United States must invest in its workforce. Labor shortages in skilled fields like shipbuilding and aerospace engineering have crippled production. Financial incentives for defense companies to train and upskill workers could help alleviate these bottlenecks. Expanding vocational training programs and investing in infrastructure could also help boost the defense industrial base and ensure that the U.S. can compete in a wartime economy.
The Stakes Are High, and Time Is Short
China's rapid militarization, coupled with the United States’ industrial shortcomings, should be a wake-up call. The balance of military power is shifting, and the U.S. defense industrial base must be revitalized if America is to maintain its global influence and deter aggression from adversaries like China. As Admiral Aquilino noted, the scale of China’s buildup is unparalleled in modern history. The United States must act now, or risk losing its position as the world’s preeminent military power.
How can the U.S. defense industry overcome its production bottlenecks and regain the strategic initiative in the face of China’s rapid rise? Share your thoughts on what measures are most critical to revitalizing America’s defense industrial base.
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