US Naval Institute Article: Report to Congress on China Naval Modernization
China’s military, particularly its navy, has undergone a dramatic transformation over the past three decades, and it’s now the focal point of U.S. defense planning. Starting in the 1990s, China's naval capabilities have evolved from a relatively modest force to the largest navy in the world. This rapid expansion and modernization have sparked concerns within U.S. military circles and policymakers regarding the future balance of power in key maritime regions like the Western Pacific.
China's Naval Modernization: A Rising Maritime Power
China’s naval forces have expanded significantly, surpassing the U.S. Navy in the number of battle force ships between 2015 and 2020. The Chinese navy, often referred to as the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN), now boasts over 370 platforms, including destroyers, submarines, aircraft carriers, and other combat vessels.
Projections suggest that by 2025, China’s fleet will swell to 395 ships, reaching 435 by 2030. In comparison, the U.S. Navy had 296 battleforce ships as of August 2024 and is projected to decrease to 294 ships by 2030 slightly.
This shipbuilding gap highlights a strategic disadvantage for the U.S., where concerns are being raised about the capacity of American shipbuilding compared to China's industrial might. Moreover, China’s ability to mass-produce modern ships with advanced weaponry and systems could outpace America's shipbuilding capabilities, creating a critical vulnerability in the near term.
Technological Advancements and Strategic Ambitions
Beyond ship numbers, China's naval modernization has embraced a comprehensive approach, covering the acquisition of cutting-edge vessels, aircraft, advanced weapons systems, and command and control capabilities (C4ISR). The PLAN’s broader goal extends beyond the mere defense of its territorial waters. It now aims for dominance in critical sea lanes, especially in the South China Sea and Western Pacific, areas that are vital not just for regional stability but also for global trade routes.
This push for naval superiority is part of a larger strategy to ensure the security of China’s trade routes, especially those connecting China to the Persian Gulf. Simultaneously, it seeks to challenge U.S. influence in the Indo-Pacific region, positioning China as the dominant regional power while also asserting itself as a formidable global force.
Perhaps most concerning for the U.S. and its allies is China’s apparent readiness to use its navy in the event of a military conflict over Taiwan. The modernization of the PLAN positions it as a potential anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) force capable of deterring or delaying U.S. intervention during a conflict in China’s near seas.
U.S. Response: Strategic Adjustments
In light of these developments, the U.S. Navy has taken several steps to counter China's growing naval power. These include deploying a larger share of its fleet to the Pacific, assigning its most advanced ships and aircraft to the region, and enhancing cooperation with allied navies through joint exercises and operations.
Further, the U.S. has ramped up efforts to innovate in unmanned systems, missile defense, and other next-generation technologies to maintain a competitive edge. New operational concepts are being developed specifically to neutralize China’s A2/AD capabilities. However, this comes at a significant cost, and policymakers are now faced with critical budgetary decisions.
The Congressional Challenge
For Congress, the question is whether to approve or adjust the Biden Administration’s proposed budget, which will have lasting implications for the U.S. Navy’s ability to match or surpass China’s growing capabilities. The outcome of these decisions will be crucial, not just for the balance of power in the Pacific but for global U.S. military strategy in the coming decades.
As the U.S. and China continue their naval arms race, it is clear that Washington must focus on long-term investments to ensure it remains a dominant force in the Pacific. The strategic choices made now will determine whether the U.S. Navy can maintain its historical position of maritime superiority or if China will become the preeminent naval power in the 21st century.
How can the U.S. balance the need for rapid naval expansion with the financial and industrial challenges it faces today? What role can private industry and innovation play in accelerating shipbuilding capacity?
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