As Europe braces itself for the increasing specter of conflict, the European Union is undergoing a critical defense evolution. With Russia’s aggression in Ukraine serving as a grim reminder of how ill-prepared the continent was, the EU’s first defense commissioner, Andrius Kubilius, is sounding the alarm. He argues that Europe must move quickly to address its undersized arms industry, stockpiling essential military supplies as a measure to defend against potential threats. This proposal is radical yet essential, signaling a significant shift in the bloc’s defense priorities.
The Urgent Call for Strategic Stockpiling: Kubilius’s Vision
Kubilius’s advocacy for compulsory stockpiling of ammunition, much like the bloc’s policy on gas reserves, reveals the EU’s recognition of a fundamental gap in its military readiness. Drawing parallels between energy and defense, he asks why Europe doesn’t apply the same rigorous standards to its military capabilities. His plan revolves around mandatory storage of artillery shells, explosives, and other crucial supplies—elements vital for sustained military action.
This approach is more than just a strategy for conflict preparedness. By creating consistent demand for military supplies, Kubilius envisions a more robust and sustainable European defense industry. As he bluntly puts it, defense contractors “lack stable long-term orders for production.” In an era where global conflict is no longer a distant possibility but a looming probability, the defense industry needs more than periodic bursts of production to support conflicts; it needs stability, growth, and strategic foresight.
Europe's Defense Landscape: Learning from Recent Mistakes
In 2022, when Ukraine was forced to ration shells and missiles amid Russia's invasion, Europe’s fragmented defense industry was put on display. Despite its economic might, the EU struggled to keep pace with Russia’s production capacity, with defense spending falling far short of what was necessary to support a large-scale, protracted war effort. Finland, one of the few European nations that maintain a robust stockpile of weaponry, highlighted the disarray in other member states. Shockingly, reports surfaced that Germany’s military reserves could be exhausted within just two days of intense fighting—a testament to how far European defense planning had fallen behind.
The EU’s decision to allocate €500 million under the Act in Support of Ammunition Production (ASAP) earlier this year marks a step forward. But Kubilius is keen to point out that while this initiative raises output capacity to 2 million shells annually by 2025, it remains inadequate compared to Russian production capabilities. As he candidly notes, “We’re still behind the Russians.”
Addressing Structural Challenges: Policy, Industry, and Unity
Kubilius is under no illusions about the structural challenges facing the EU. One of the more contentious aspects of his strategy is the push for member states to borrow funds jointly to bolster defense capabilities—a proposal that Germany and the Netherlands have resisted, fearing increased financial exposure. Yet, this kind of unity in defense spending is critical for a coherent, effective European military posture.
Another key issue is Europe’s fragmented defense procurement landscape. The tendency for member states to prioritize national champions over cross-border cooperation has resulted in an inefficient proliferation of different models of tanks, artillery, and other military assets. Not only does this redundancy hamper logistics, but it also fragments the European defense market, making it harder to scale up production or develop shared defense projects. Kubilius wants to change this, incentivizing collaboration across borders and introducing more coherent standards for procurement.
To drive further investment, Kubilius has also advocated for a change in EU investment rules, reclassifying defense spending as “sustainable”—a move that could unlock significant private capital. With defense increasingly viewed as integral to the security of democracies, there is growing recognition that financial markets must play their part in supporting military innovation and preparedness.
Implications for the U.S. and Global Security Dynamics
Kubilius’s call for a European air shield and a comprehensive cyber defense system underscores the growing realization that Europe’s security is no longer guaranteed by NATO alone. With NATO’s resources stretched and the U.S. increasingly focused on challenges in the Indo-Pacific, the EU must become a more self-reliant defense actor. While NATO remains indispensable, European autonomy is becoming an urgent necessity.
The implications for the U.S. defense industry are significant. A more self-sufficient European defense sector could reduce demand for U.S.-made weapons systems, which have historically filled the gap in Europe’s capabilities. On the flip side, Kubilius’s strategy may offer new opportunities for U.S. defense contractors to collaborate with European counterparts on joint ventures or projects that enhance NATO’s collective defense capabilities.
Globally, Europe’s ability to project power is being closely monitored by adversaries and allies alike. Kubilius himself has highlighted the concerns surrounding China’s perception of Western disunity. “The Chinese will make one simple conclusion,” he warns. “The West is quite weak... Despite the fact the combined Western economic spending power is 25 times stronger than Russia, we are not able to win.” This raises a critical point: Europe’s defense strategy must not only be reactive to Russia but proactive in signaling strength to other global powers.
The Road Ahead: Europe’s Defense Awakening
Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s estimate that the EU needs to spend €500 billion to make up for decades of underinvestment in defense may seem daunting, but it’s necessary. The geopolitical environment is changing rapidly, and Europe can no longer rely on old paradigms of security. Kubilius’s vision for a stronger, more coordinated European defense is not just about stockpiling shells—it’s about rebuilding Europe’s capacity to defend itself in an increasingly volatile world.
As the EU continues to bolster its defenses, the United States will need to reassess its role within the transatlantic alliance. The challenges ahead are daunting, but with bold leadership and a united front, Europe can rise to meet them.
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