Article from Asia Times: US racing to shield Indo-Pacific bases from China’s missiles
As the US strives to secure its Indo-Pacific military bases, a pressing question emerges: Can the Agile Combat Employment (ACE) strategy outmaneuver China's rapidly advancing missile technology, powered by AI and machine learning?
The Rising Threat in the Indo-Pacific
The urgency to bolster US military defenses in the Indo-Pacific stems from the escalating missile capabilities of both China and North Korea. These advancements pose a significant threat to US bases, particularly those west of the International Date Line. According to a June 2023 report from the Congressional Research Service (CRS), China's development of ballistic and hypersonic missiles, coupled with sophisticated ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance) systems, enhances its ability to target US installations with unprecedented precision.
Guam, a critical hub for US military operations, is at the center of these concerns. The Missile Defense Agency (MDA) is responding with plans to integrate advanced radar systems like the AN/TPY-6, designed to track and intercept incoming threats. Yet, the looming question is whether these efforts will suffice in the face of AI-driven warfare capabilities.
ACE Strategy: Innovation Under Siege?
The ACE strategy, a cornerstone of the US Air Force’s plans, aims to create a network of smaller, more agile bases capable of withstanding and responding to attacks. It emphasizes decentralized operations, rapid mobility, and integrated command systems like JADC2 (Joint All-domain Command and Control). However, critics argue that this strategy may not be enough to counter China's AI-assisted missile systems.
China’s People’s Liberation Army-Rocket Force (PLA-RF) has a formidable missile arsenal, capable of striking US military installations across the Pacific. When combined with AI, these systems can rapidly process data and accelerate the targeting cycle, potentially outpacing the US's ability to relocate assets under the ACE strategy.
The Battle for Technological Supremacy
The US military’s efforts to enhance its defenses are vast, ranging from the deployment of the Enhanced Integrated Air and Missile Defense (EIAMD) system to the construction of alternative facilities on islands like Tinian. Yet, as Michael Blaser highlighted in a July 2024 article for Proceedings, the real challenge lies in countering the AI-driven capabilities that could render these defenses obsolete.
Blaser suggests that the US Air Force might need to embrace deception techniques, such as using camouflage, decoys, and other methods to disrupt enemy targeting processes. These age-old tactics, combined with cutting-edge technology, could be the key to maintaining an edge in this high-tech arms race.
Conclusion: A New Era of Defense Strategy
The ACE strategy represents a bold shift in military doctrine, emphasizing agility and resilience. However, its success hinges on the US's ability to stay ahead in the AI-driven arms race. As China continues to integrate AI into its military operations, the US must innovate not just in defense technology, but in strategic thinking as well.
With the rapid advancements in AI and missile technology, should the US focus more on developing counter-AI measures and deception tactics rather than solely on upgrading traditional military defenses? How can the US ensure its ACE strategy remains effective in this new era of warfare?
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